Disclaimer: This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any financial or purchasing decisions.

I’ve mentioned before that Arena Club slab packs usually aren’t my thing, given that the odds say you’ll get (sometimes significantly) less value than just buying singles. On a recent vacation though, I was feeling lucky (and fresh off a decent sports bet win), I decided to make an exception and try out an Emerald baseball slab pack.

Why I Took the Plunge

A few factors came together:

• Being on vacation and hiking up to a temple
• I had some extra money to play with (thanks to the Timberwolves and Thunder both making the Western Conference Finals)
• The Emerald pack’s card lineup was genuinely appealing, with a grail chase card—a 1922 Babe Ruth E120 American Caramel—that looked incredible, even if the odds of hitting it was only 0.1%.
• The four chase cards (0.5% each) were also cards I’d love to own, and even the rest of the checklist had some intriguing options

The Buying and Opening Experience

Buying the pack was incredibly easy—I actually purchased it from the top of a mountain! Even with spotty cell service, the digital pack opened just as you’d expect, building a bit of suspense as I waited to see what I’d pull.

The Result: Not a Chase, But Not Bad

The Emerald pack cost $500, and I opted for insurance (80% buyback for a 10% premium), so after taxes and fees, my total was $600. I pulled a PSA 10 George Lombard Jr. Speckle Refractor 1st Bowman Auto /299.

At first, I mixed up Lombard with Roderick Arias, another Yankees prospect who’s been dropping in value, and was very disappointed. However, after checking, I realized my mistake and saw that Lombard is actually a top 35 prospect, and the Yankees’ top overall prospect.

In addition to the insurance, Arena Club has also added a new option where they will buy the card back for 90% of its value. While I’m not sure how they come up with this value, for this Lombard, Arena Club offered a $409 buyback (valuing the card at $455). However, after looking at comps, I saw the same card up in an eBay auction at $455 with 2 days still left to go, as well as one with a buy-it-now listing for $529.99. Thus, I assume the true value is somewhere in between those two numbers.

My Decision

Ultimately, I decided I to keep the Lombard Jr. and not sell it back. I think the fact that he’s the Yankees top prospect is a huge potential boon for his value (as we’ve seen in the past with Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe). While it’s not a card that I would normally would have bought on my own (given my preference to say away from ultra-modern cards), I do think it’s an interesting long-term hold. The fact that it’s a PSA 10 1st Bowman auto numbered to /299 of a 19 year old prospect gives it a lot of room to grow in value (even if it’s more likely than not that he doesn’t pan out).

The only thing I wish is that I hadn’t bought the insurance, as this extra 10% cost me an extra $50 that I didn’t end up using. It would’ve made sense for me to use if I had pulled an absolute floor card, but I think I should’ve just left it up to chance and risk going without it (although maybe this is me talking with the value of hindsight bias). I do want to know how Arena Club calculates the 90% buyback value though, as this seems hard to gauge (as I will show you in another example in an upcoming post).

Would I Do It Again?

Honestly, probably not—unless I’m feeling lucky again. The entertainment value is high, and the thrill of chasing a Babe Ruth was real, but the odds (and math) just don’t justify making slab packs a habit. If you’re thinking about buying a slab pack, know that it’s a fun rip, but singles are almost always the smarter play.